Numerical Modelling of Sea Storms occurred over the Black Sea

Adem Akpınar


The objective of this study is to use numerical wave models to predict the extreme storm conditions in the Black Sea. In the past and recent years, two historical storms (February 1979 and February 6-8, 2012) that caused significant damages along the Bulgarian coast and a historical storm (February 2003) affecting the eastern part of the Black Sea and two storms (February 1999 and March 2013) that impacted southern coast of the Black Sea were reported in the Black Sea. In this study, simulations are conducted for these past and recent storms that strongly affected the coasts of the Black Sea. The third-generation numerical wave hindcast model SWAN has been applied. ERA-Interim and CFSR winds are used as inputs to the SWAN model for modelling of the storms. The validation of the results is made by performing comparisons against in situ measurements from two buoys (data for 1999 at Hopa and 2003 at Gelendzhik) during two storms. In addition, spatial and temporal developments of the storms are examined. According to the results obtained it is seen that SWAN model using the CFSR wind fields performed better than SWAN model with ERA Interim winds and, among the used combinations, it is determined that the combination including Komen formulation for wind growth and Janssen formulation for whitecapping with Cds=1.5 (Komen & Janssen Cds= 1.5) is the best.


SWAN; Sea storms; Numerical modelling; Black Sea

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